Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Global economics

Inspite of the fact that the global recession has hit US and Europe particularly badly and China has continued to grow apace, Western based analysts cannot resist the temptation of criticizing China's attempt to restructure its economy against the steep fall in demand for their goods and services. Banks were instructed not to reduce availability of credit to Chinese companies. This has prevented lay offs on the one hand but has lead to rise in inventories. Analysts expect that this will lead to piling of bad debt with banks resulting in failure of the banking system as has happened in the west. This analysis stems from lack of understanding of the Chinese system of economic management. People are unable to figure out that how an export economy like China can continue to grow when the importing western economies are in a bind. They expect the Chinese economic bubble to burst in the future with massive global shock waves.
I somehow cannot subscribe to this theory. The Chinese policy making is based on realpolitik and has shown to be highly adaptable to changes. The change from a pure play socialist model of development to a command and control based capitalist model of development has happened seamlessly. New changes being implemented will result in greater and greater demand for goods and services in the Chinese domestic market space. The inventories will slowly be consumed locally and a new growth model will emerge. I am afraid western analysts fears on a Chinese implosion will not come true and they will have to get used to the Chinese economic resurgence in the future.

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